From the rapid progress of the early 21st century,to the rise and fall under the heavy pressure of the"Double Anti"movement in 2011,and then to the rebirth after transformation and upgrading
After more than a decade of ups and downs,China's photovoltaic industry has had a bumpy fate.With the gradual maturity of technology and the gradual clarification of policies,the current photovoltaic industry seems to be about to usher in a trillion dollar market explosion.
Among them,flexible and easy to consume distributed photovoltaics have seen explosive development since 2016,causing market turmoil.
So,is this a good time to enter the photovoltaic industry?What is the technological maturity of the industry?Is the business model stable?What are the policy trends?What kind of company has more investment value?
With these questions in mind,Yema Finance recently conducted a field visit to the"Yunwanjia"household photovoltaic power generation project under Longjitai and Smart Energy(01281),one of the main participants in the industry.
Is the business model sustainable?
One of the important criteria for judging whether an industry can achieve good development is whether a business model that fits the market has been found,and the outbreak of distributed photovoltaic technology is largely attributed to the increasingly mature and smooth progress of"household photovoltaic power generation projects".
The so-called"household photovoltaic power generation",as the name suggests,refers to a photovoltaic power generation system installed in vacant areas such as the roof of a home.Taking Yunwanjia products as an example,it mainly consists of the following steps.
Firstly,the selection and installation of equipment in the early stage.This part is basically completed by Yunwanjia,who is responsible for providing equipment(polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic modules)to farmers and completing site selection and installation.
Secondly,the procedures and lines for grid connection of photovoltaic power generation.As is well known,the power system is a complex system,and when connecting to the grid,many factors such as the voltage stability of the entire power grid should be considered.Therefore,not only do users need to install a set of professional equipment and lines such as inverters;Moreover,the power bureau also needs to coordinate and arrange the power generation situation in the region(no more than 25%of the transformer capacity),which is relatively cumbersome and professional,while Yunwanjia is responsible for completing all docking,saving users a lot of energy.
Thirdly,the composition of user benefits.
The sustainability of a business model largely depends on whether it can truly meet the immediate needs of users.At present,the biggest advantage of household photovoltaic systems for users is that they can bring long-term and stable benefits.
For example,according to Zhang Shunsheng,a farmer we visited this time,when planting corn locally,the income per acre per season is only about 600 yuan.However,compared to the cost,not only the labor costs,but also the necessary costs such as seeds,fertilization,and harvesting,are already close to this number,leaving little gross profit.
In contrast,a 5kW power device from Yunwanjia has a total cost of about 30000 to 40000 yuan.According to the weather conditions in Hebei,the estimated annual power generation is around 7000 kWh,and each kWh of electricity can be sold for 1.05 yuan.In one year,Yunwanjia can earn around 7300 yuan in revenue,which can be basically recovered within five years,and then steadily generate profits.
Fourthly,installation costs and payment methods.
To be honest,a one-time investment of 30000 to 40000 yuan is not a small amount for many farmers.Considering this,many enterprises,including Yunwanjia,have collaborated with banks to launch special photovoltaic loans.
According to this model,farmers only need to pay a one-time installation and labor cost of several thousand yuan in the early stage to obtain a set of 5kW photovoltaic equipment.Unlike purchasing other goods in installments,as the electricity generated by photovoltaic equipment can be sold,this part of the income can be used as a source of repayment without having to pay extra.
Zhang Shunsheng,mentioned earlier,chose a one-time payment that can be collected in 5-6 years,while another farmer who visited chose a 5kw loan model.He stated that choosing this product is largely for the purpose of retirement planning,so that he can have a good and stable income in his later years.
At the same time,the combination of"sustained income+bank loans"can also be effectively used for poverty alleviation by"granting people to fish".Yunwanjia,located in Fushan County,one of the poverty-stricken counties in Shanxi Province,adopted a"five in one"poverty alleviation fund raising method of"government+bank+insurance+implementation entities+impoverished households",and completed a total scale of 17.4 megawatts of household level power stations and village level power stations,assisting 2164 impoverished households.
How mature is the industry and technology?
If the business model of a product can be recognized by users,which determines the scale and prospects of the product,then controlling the core technology and production chain affects the level of cost and profitability,and ultimately determines the company's competitiveness in the industry.
Specifically,in the photovoltaic industry,products can be divided into three types:polycrystalline silicon,monocrystalline silicon,and thin film solar cells.Each of the three products has its own advantages and disadvantages,and the processes are relatively mature.There is no absolute technological monopoly in the industry,and of course,there are differences in production processes.Taking polycrystalline silicon as an example,Longjitai and Smart Energy choose the highest level"A+board".
The production and sales of photovoltaic equipment are only a part of Longjitai's smart energy business.On this basis,the company also has business segments such as smart energy cloud platform,smart energy intelligent operation and maintenance,and smart energy power trading.
The above image shows the background display screen of the intelligent management system
The so-called smart energy cloud platform refers to the use of internet technology to effectively manage electricity demand side.
For example,distributed photovoltaics,Longjitai,and Smart Energy have a real-time backend monitoring system that not only allows users to see the operation status of each device at any time,but also allows them to allocate personnel nearby for maintenance and adjustment according to their needs.
Moreover,users who have installed solar components can also download the app to view real-time power generation status,submit questions,seek help,and more.
As for smart energy intelligent operation and maintenance,it refers to providing 7X24 hour operation monitoring for customers'electricity facilities,providing professional and intelligent operation and maintenance services such as daily inspection,maintenance,emergency repair,preventive testing,energy consumption reports,etc.
The most noteworthy thing is that Longjitai and Smart Energy,as one of the first few enterprises in Hebei Province to obtain electricity sales licenses after the opening of the electricity sales policy,can directly carry out electricity purchase and sales business between power generation enterprises and users,which is also the foundation for conducting photovoltaic grid connection business.
Is the industry and policy trend stable?
The stability of the overall technology and the feasibility of the business model have led to an astonishing development speed of distributed photovoltaics.So,what are its future trends?
Firstly,from a policy perspective,with the introduction of the concept of"Beautiful China"in recent years,the concept of clean energy has become increasingly popular.In terms of distributed photovoltaics,in order to encourage industry development,the Ministry of Finance issued relevant subsidy measures in 2013,and each province and city also has its own further subsidies.
For example,the 1.05 yuan electricity price introduced in the first part includes 0.3466 yuan for the power system,0.42 yuan for the national subsidy,0.2 yuan for the Hebei Province subsidy,and subsidies from the National Renewable Energy Fund.Compared to ordinary thermal power,the price is much higher,so most photovoltaic module users also sell photovoltaic power generation and use cheap thermal power in their daily lives.
However,having subsidies also means that there will be a day when subsidies disappear.Therefore,for photovoltaic companies,in addition to exploring the market,it is particularly important to establish their own industrial closed-loop as soon as possible,control costs,and explore added value.In this regard,Longjitai and Smart Energy should be at the forefront.
However,as a player in the game,the decline of industry subsidies will inevitably have a certain impact.As for whether it is"after the recession,the strong will remain strong"or"when big waves come,they will be jointly impacted",perhaps early next year,we can take a glimpse from the new energy vehicle industry,which is currently in the midst of a storm of subsidy reduction.
As for users who join at the current stage,there is no need to worry about the decline in subsidies,as relevant policies have continuity.Even if there are future policy changes,users who enter before the window period will be subsidized according to the original policy.
The above image shows the rooftop solar panels of Longjitai and Smart Energy Office Building
Secondly,there are issues with the installation of urban equipment.On the one hand,the majority of buildings in cities require the consent of every owner of the entire building to install equipment on the roof,which is relatively cumbersome;On the other hand,monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon solar cells require glass packaging,metal brackets,and a certain weight of cement blocks(to prevent them from being blown away by the wind),which have a certain weight.Therefore,when installing,it is also necessary to consider the bearing capacity of the building structure,which to some extent limits the installation of the product.
However,supporting technologies such as lighter alloys,lighter packaging films,and more reasonable wind resistant structures have gradually matured,which will soon provide assistance for the development of distributed photovoltaics.
In addition,as mentioned earlier,considering the stability of the power system,there is a certain upper limit for photovoltaic power grid connection.However,due to practical and historical factors such as relatively dispersed population and relatively backward economy,the transformer capacity in rural areas is relatively small.Just like the villages in this survey,when the transformer of 10 to 20 kilowatts in each village is multiplied by 25%,the upper limit is basically reached for about five households.Moreover,almost every user who has experienced it has a willingness to continue installing.
And this naturally means that with the further upgrading and transformation of the power system,the incremental space of the distributed photovoltaic industry will continue to open up.
It is worth mentioning that there is also a small detail in the research.As the"first person to eat crabs"in the village,Zhang Shunsheng,who was born as an electrician,mentioned that in the past,voltage instability often occurred in rural areas.However,household power generation projects can also ensure the stability of the surrounding small range of voltage when transmitting power to the power grid,which is actually a protection for the power grid.As long as handled properly,it can be as beneficial and avoid harm as much as possible.
Overall,distributed photovoltaics can promote the improvement of energy structure and promote ecological environment protection;It can also bring stable profits to users,solve many problems such as poverty,elderly care,investment,etc.,which can be said to be more than one action.
As analyzed by Li Qionghui,the director of the New Energy Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute,by the end of 2020,if we follow the issued"Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the 13th Five Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development",the actual installed capacity of photovoltaic power grid connection will be at least 220 million kilowatts.Compared to the current situation,there is enormous room for growth.Moreover,based on the resource characteristics and low energy density of photovoltaic,distributed photovoltaic is more suitable for development.
According to the"2017 2023 China Photovoltaic Industry Deep Research and Development Trend Analysis Report"by Zhiyan Consulting,it is expected that the photovoltaic industry will reach a trillion yuan level during the 13th Five Year Plan period.
As for how long it will be before the industry fully explodes from a market perspective,I believe everyone has a preliminary judgment in their hearts.